Lessons on OSINT
I closely followed the Syrian Civil War in 2016-2017. I started this work as a research intern at a small think tank called The Syria Institute, which was run by Valerie Szybala, a former analyst at the Institute for the Study of War. I later ran a conflict simulation on the conflict for 200+ high school students at Tufts University.
During this period, I learned some critical lessons on open-source intelligence (OSINT) collection and analysis, aka "breaking news research" or "instant history":
Know your sources
The Syrian Civil War—like most wars—includes numerous actors with various agendas. There's unsurprisingly a ton of mis- and disinformation. If you don't know the identity, background, and reputation of your source, your intel is useless.
Remember the big picture
A good chunk of your work is following day-to-day events. An intern reading breaking news 24/7 for weeks on end will probably know more about current events than the Syria desk officer at the State Department. Unfortunately, this narrow focus will throw you off the big picture. To the best of your ability, try to remind yourself about the strategic and operational levels of conflict. Keep asking yourself big questions:
- What are U.S. strategic interests? Is the U.S. acting according to those interests? If not, what policy should be change, who should lead that effort, and what resources do they need for success?
- How/when do you think the war will end? What factors are you including in this prediction? How has your view changed, if at all, over the past month/year?
- What do you think are the short- and long-term consequences of [recent event]? Why?
Create a routine, and organize your collection methods
You don’t need to follow a routine religiously, but it’s helpful to systematize your workflow. You’ll find yourself entering a flow state faster and more often. I also recommend writing out your daily objectives in the morning to prioritize your agenda when things inevitably pop up. A the end of the day, review what you haven't finished, and determine whether you're over-prioritizing pop-up taskers.
Additionally, you should organize your collection methods. Before you start collecting information for an assignment, develop a tentative plan for how to organize relevant data. Organized data collection leads to stronger analysis.
Don’t overestimate the importance of breaking news
The media will often overreact to breaking news. When armed opposition groups took down several regime aircraft in a couple weeks, for example. reporters suddenly started questioning the sustainability of the Syrian Air Force.
Remember that journalists are paid for eyeballs on their reports. Be skeptical about the significance of daily/weekly events, especially when the surrounding context is not provided.
Don’t assume incompetence
Back in summer 2016, Syria analysts were furious about a U.S.-backed New Syrian Army (NSyA) operation to take ISIS-held Al-Bukamal. They tweeted angrily at U.S. commanders, asking who thought sending in just 50 operatives was a good idea. We soon discovered that NSyA operatives were supposed to meet up with partner opposition groups from Iraq. Additionally, sleeper cells hidden within Al-Bukamal were supposed to activate during the operation. Obviously the offensive didn’t go as planned, but it wasn’t because commanders thought they could take a city with a few dozen men.
Early critics are often wrong because they don't have enough information.
Study the intelligence field
You should know the difference between forecasts, judgements, and analysis. You should also be familiar with common cognitive biases and how to recognize and counter them. The CIA library has lots of materials for budding intelligence analysts.